Step 5 : How Matched Bettors Profit from Casinos / Understanding EV (Estimated Value)

Matched Betting: 7 Steps to Reaching Your Financial Goals Email Course

Once you complete the sports sign-up offers with bookmakers then service providers like Profit Accumulator, OddsMonkey and Profit Maximiser will teach you how to profit from Casino offers. Some people are wary of doing them, but they need not be as Casino offers are profitable long-term due to a couple of basic maths principles. I have explained a bit more about this below.

Note: You do not need to memorise how all this works, this section is here for explanation purposes only. The service providers you subscribe to will teach you all you need to know through video examples.

The Edge – EV (Estimated Value)

EV, Estimated Value (sometimes known as Expected Value or Equivalent Value) is the edge that matched bettors have when doing casino offers that will allow us to profit long-term.

This works on the mathematical principle known as the Law of Large Numbers which Wikipedia defines as:

“The Law of Large Numbers is important because it guarantees stable long-term results for the averages of random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins.”

This is known as the casino’s edge and how they will always profit over their normal punters long term.

However, if the casino offers to match our money with some free bonus money then this will usually give us the edge needed to profit long term.

Instead of thinking of an offer as a single coin toss on its own you must think of doing one casino offer as part of a series of coin tosses where you know the advantage in is your favour.

How Exactly Do Matched Bettors Profit from Casino Offers?

  • We only do casino offers if there is an offer involved and offers give us the mathematical edge
  • The mathematical edge comes from the probability theory described above called the EV (Estimated Value) of the offer
  • Each casino offer worth doing has a quantifiable EV which is displayed in £s

Let’s have a look at the example below which is an offer listed on the Profit Maximiser website (which lists full instructions on how to complete it):

Example 1: Casino Offers: Sign-Up Offer

Grosvenor Casino

Grosvenor Casino Sign-Up Offer on Profit Maximiser
Grosvenor Casino Sign-Up Offer on Profit Maximiser

Offer: Deposit £20 get £20 bonus (credited instantly)
When is the bonus credited: Instantly when depositing
Wagering requirements: Wager £100 worth of bets before withdrawing
Estimated Value: £17
Risk: Low risk

See the Estimated Value? Using the Law of Large Numbers that means that if we were to do the offer 1,000 times we could estimate we’d make, on average, £17 from each go. Of course, due to variance, not every result will be £17 profit exactly, so the results will be a mixture of:

  • Big wins
  • Small wins
  • Small losses
  • Times when we lose our full £20 stake
  • But overall, if we done this exact same offer 1,000 times we could expect to make, on average, around £17 profit from each attempt – this equates to £17,000

Variance is an easy to grasp concept which we explain more of below. But I’ve displayed example results in a table below so you can see how it works. (I’m only using 10 offers due to space requirements but it is the exact same idea)

Offer AttemptProfit/Loss for Offer AttemptRolling Total
1-£20-£20
2-£20-£40
3+£17.10-£22.90
4-£13.28-£36.18
5+£59.49+£23.31
6-£3.90+£19.41
7-£20-£0.41
8-£8.12-£8.53
9+£123.56+£115.03
10-£17.86+£97.17
Overall Profit/Loss:+£97.17

You see the downswings and upswings? This is variance. In fact, there’s more red figures on that table than there is green – but the end result will always be a green and profitable figure if you only do +EV (positive Estimated Value) offers and let the Law of Large Numbers play out.

Your results won’t pan out exactly like the above – remember, it’s only an example. But this is the concept in essence – you will on lose many more offers than you will win, but as long as you are playing casino games through an offer than has a positive EV then you will profit long-term.

The great thing is that all matched betting service providers will calculate the Estimated Value for you – so you don’t have to calculate the EV yourself – they have already checked that the offer is worth doing.

Profit Maximiser

Profit Maximiser has the best tutorials, instructions and community for learning how to profit from casino offers long term. Mike Cruickshank, owner of Profit Maximiser, has even a specialised casino software called EV Maximiser that simulates offer variance.

Take action by signing up today, completing the initial sports bookmaker sign-up offers and use the profits to bankroll your casino exploits with this life-changing service.

Example 2: Casino Offers – Roulette/Blackjack

Let have a look at another simple example, again this is taken directly from the Profit Maximiser website. This time the offer is on Roulette or Blackjack – casino games I’m sure most of you are familiar with.

Profit Maximiser EV Example - Betfair Casino Promotion
Profit Maximiser EV Example - Betfair Casino Promotion

First, we see the offer on the calendar. The key things to note are:

  • Betfair are offering to match our own £5 with a free £5 on Roulette or Blackjack
  • The Estimated Value is £4.70
  • This means if we were to do the offer 1,000 times we could expect to make, on average, £4.70 profit from every attempt – this equates to £4,700

So how did the users of Profit Maximiser get on in their results? Well, let’s look at the results posted on the Facebook group:

Profit Maximiser Facebook Group - Betfair Casino Promotion Results
Profit Maximiser Facebook Group - Betfair Casino Promotion Results
Profit Maximiser More Facebook Group - Betfair Casino Promotion Results
Profit Maximiser - More Facebook Group - Betfair Casino Promotion Results

See how there’s a few people saying they lost £5? Then there’s some more saying they lost £4 and one saying they lost 50p.

But look at the people in profit. There’s +£25, +£24, +£22.50, +£16 and +£47.50. There’s nobody saying they made £4.70 (which is the EV of the offer) exactly…

Are There Any Videos to Explain This Idea in a More Visual Manner?

Yes! And it’s an excellent demonstration too. To explain more about this edge the bookmaker is giving us by providing bonus funds, watch the below video which excellently explains the concept through the example of betting on a coin flip:

Variance

Variance isn’t something you need to understand in great depths – the only thing you need to remember is that you will complete more offers where you will lose money than where you win money. But thanks to EV this isn’t something to be too concerned about as you will always end up profit in the longer-term.

Variance is a measurement of the spread between numbers in a set of results. The variance measures how far each result in the set is from the average Estimated Value.

Some Top Tips

I have some top tips for you when starting out doing these types of offers:

  • Follow the instructions provided on whichever service provider you use and you can’t go wrong
  • Do not give up if you do your first few offers and don’t make big profits, or even if you just make some small losses, this is part of the game and is known as the variance which is described above
  • Start out doing the sign-up offers your chosen service provider lists as these are the lowest risk and will help you grasp the concept
  • Keep a track of your results by noting down both the +EV number mentioned in the offer that is posted plus keep a record of your profit/loss figure for that offer

    Final Thoughts

I understand, this may be a difficult concept to get your head around at first- but it’s just like the sports sign-up offers – once you do 3 or 4 of them you will begin to understand how it works. Casino offers are a great way to profit from matched betting and everyone who is earning the top money is doing them. Like the saying goes – “Believe in EV!”  – and you will reap the rewards.

That’s Step 5 complete. Don’t get too hung up on understanding Casino offers now. They become the next natural step after you’ve completed the sports bookmaker sign-up offers.

But if you have any more questions feel free to contact me on Twitter @STT_Neal or on our Facebook page.

Looking for some further info on the best matched betting service providers around?

Then check out the full Matched Betting Services Comparison table here.

Matched Betting Services Comparison

Profit Maximiser isn’t the only service out there, but it is our recommended choice for those wanting to take full advantage of casino offers. If you’d like to see it compared to the other two best services, just click below.

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