- Click here for the Challenge Preview
- Click here for Week 2’s Summary
- Click here for Week 3’s Summary
- Click here for Week 4’s Summary and Final Results
Wow. Where to begin? What a week! 4 days into the challenge I was starting to become concerned that I was already going to have to admit defeat in reaching the challenge target of £1,500 in 4 Weeks.
Things started off steady as I began following my Week 1 plan (outlined here in my OddsMonkey Challenge Preview blog) on Friday 8th of September. However, the major issue in the first weekend was most of my bets were winning into the bookmakers! Even a number of my free bets, which are best used at odds above 5.0, were winning into the bookies. This almost completely wiped out my Smarkets bankroll.[/vc_column_text][vc_btn title=”Get Your Free Trial with OddsMonkey” style=”3d” color=”warning” size=”lg” align=”center” i_align=”right” i_icon_fontawesome=”fa fa-mouse-pointer” button_block=”true” add_icon=”true” link=”url:http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sportstradingtools.co.uk%2Foddsm||target:%20_blank|”][vc_message color=”info”]Top Tip: One of my plans was to use combined liability when laying my free bets on Smarkets. For example, backing multiple outcomes in the same market – such as spreading your risk across a number of Correct Scores.
This improves cash flow as it means your liability gets shared between all the outcomes you’ve layed. I didn’t actually get to use this strategy, but it is a very useful thing to do if you have a large enough bank.[/vc_message][vc_column_text]The biggest nuisances were Hobro scoring a winning goal in the dying minutes and Metz somehow scoring against PSG (both on Friday), then Watford (who were 5.80!) securing all 3 points vs Southampton with two absolute wonder strikes on the Saturday. Then to top off a bad weekend, Lee-Chung Yong’s ill-advised back pass 3 minutes into the Burnley vs Crystal Palace game on Sunday meant that my Burnley bets also won.
The reason this was such a nuisance is because I’ve given myself such a tight bankroll of £500 and only a short timeframe to achieve this challenge. But with most of my bets winning into the bookies it meant I then had to wait for withdrawals (which usually take 3-4 days to arrive back into my bank account) before I could get going again.
Even though I had made a decent profit from all the sign ups I’d done this meant I would have to wait until Wednesday at least before I had any sort of significant amount that I could put back into Smarkets so I could cover any lay bets for completing new sign ups.
By the end of play on Monday I was £87.81 up. Not bad going considering I was only 4 days into my challenge, but I knew there was a significant speed bump in the road with my lack of bankroll to be able to continue completing the other sign ups I had planned on doing.[/vc_column_text][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner][vc_single_image image=”2603″ img_size=”medium” add_caption=”yes” alignment=”center” style=”vc_box_border” onclick=”link_image”][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_column_text]
The Bit of Luck I Needed[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”2604″ img_size=”medium” add_caption=”yes” alignment=”center” style=”vc_box_border” onclick=”link_image”][vc_column_text]However, late on Monday whilst I was having a check of the daily calendar on OddsMonkey, I realised there was a decent Bingo offer on at William Hill. I didn’t want to start doing Casino or Bingo offers in my first week – it wasn’t part of the plan. But in desperation I felt I had to try something whilst I waited for the withdrawals to hit my bank account. This offer was Wager £10 on the Twinkle slot through Bingo and get £5 free with 10x Wagering Requirements. This is a decent offer that could be repeated each day from Sunday to Thursday (unfortunately I had missed the Sunday).[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”2605″ img_size=”medium” add_caption=”yes” alignment=”center” style=”vc_box_border” onclick=”link_image”][vc_column_text]On Monday I was – £7.08, on Tuesday I finished wagering with £9 profit but on Wednesday I hit a fairly big win and finished wagering with £92.20 profit. Thank f**k! On Thursday I ended up -£11.78 (I overstaked, oops!). You can see a screenshot of the decent win from Wednesday below:[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”2606″ img_size=”medium” add_caption=”yes” alignment=”center” style=”vc_box_border” onclick=”link_image”][vc_column_text]Then there was the Coral offer on Champions League matches on Tuesday and Wednesday… Ah. This was just beautiful. It couldn’t have worked out much better.
I was fully aware walking into this offer and using the following strategy that I could lose £50 and gain absolutely nothing – giving me a real setback in my challenge. But because of my lack of bankroll for Smarkets I was forced into doing the offer using the Advantage Play strategy.[/vc_column_text][vc_raw_js]JTNDc2NyaXB0JTIwdHlwZSUzRCUyN3RleHQlMkZqYXZhc2NyaXB0JTI3JTIwc3JjJTNEJTIyaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZ3bHNtYXJrZXRzLmFkc3J2LmVhY2RuLmNvbSUyRlMuYXNoeCUzRmJ0YWclM0RhXzExNTFiXzMxY18lMjZhZmZpZCUzRDI1NzI2JTI2c2l0ZWlkJTNEMTE1MSUyNmFkaWQlM0QzMSUyNmMlM0QlMjIlMjAlM0UlM0MlMkZzY3JpcHQlM0U=[/vc_raw_js][vc_message color=”info”]
What is Advantage Play?
Advantage Play (or AP) is when the odds of an offer are in your favour mathematically. For example, if a bookie is offering a free bet refund if your selection loses then rather than matching your 1st back bet by laying it on exchange in order to guarantee yourself a profit you would just let it run its course and hope the bet wins.
If the bet does win then awesome – you’re quids in! If it doesn’t then you at least have a 2nd chance to win by placing another bet with the free bet refund. This gives you double the chances of making a profit.[/vc_message][vc_column_text]As this could be done on all 5 Champions League matches involving English teams I could have made a guaranteed profit of around £25-30 by laying the bets off on the exchange – but I would have needed to have had at least £200-250 in my Smarkets exchange to be able to do this. So, I used the Advantage Play strategy outlined above.
Thankfully, out of my all my bets I had some big winners as I placed the following:
- Tuesday: Liverpool vs Sevilla – Liverpool HT/Draw FT (Placed just after Liverpool went 0-1 behind)
- Wednesday: Arsenal vs Koln – Arsenal 2-1 and 3-1 Correct Score (Placed at half time when Arsenal were also 0-1 behind)
Week 1 Results
By the end of play Thursday my total stood at £394.81. I’m absolutely delighted with this as my first week’s target was £250. This also means my bank now stands at £894.81 (£394.81 profit plus the original £500 starting bank) meaning I can complete more offers during Week 2 and not have to worry about my Exchange bankroll too much.[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”2608″ img_size=”medium” add_caption=”yes” alignment=”center” style=”vc_box_border” onclick=”link_image”][vc_column_text]
Week 2 Plans
Throughout Week 2 I plan to continue completing more sign up offers (hopefully results will be kinder to me this time and more of my bets win into Smarkets!). I will also be doing any low-risk or medium risk Casino or Bingo offers that come my way, although I’m prepared for a slight downturn in variance as I admit I got very lucky in my first week! My target for Week 2 is £350 profit.
Ps. You can follow my daily progress on Twitter.